Forecasting COVID-19 cases in Egypt using ARIMA-based time-series analysis

Objectives: The World Health Organization declared the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak a public health emer-gency of international concern on January 30, 2020. Since it was first identified, COVID-19 has infected more than one hundred million people worldwide, with more than two million fatalities. This study focuses on the interpretation of the distribution of COVID-19 in Egypt to develop an effective forecasting model that can be used as a decision-making mechanism to administer health interventions and mitigate the transmission of COVID-19. Method(s): A model was developed using the data collected by the Egyptian Ministry of Health and used it to predict possible COVID-19 cases in Egypt. Result(s): Statistics obtained based on time-series and kinetic model analyses suggest that the total number of CO-VID-19 cases in mainland Egypt could reach 11076 per week (March 1, 2020 through January 24, 2021) and the number of simple regenerations could reach 12. Analysis of the ARIMA (2, 1, 2) and (2, 1, 3) sequences shows a rise in the number of COVID-19 events. Conclusion(s): The developed forecasting model can help the government and medical personnel plan for the imminent conditions and ensure that healthcare systems are prepared to deal with them.Copyright © 2021 by Eurasian Journal of Medicine and Oncology.

The ocular surface manifestation in ICU coronavirus disease-infected patients: a matched-pair analysis

ObjectivesEvaluation of the incidence and nature of ocular surface involvement in ICU coronavirus disease (COVID)-infected patients.Patients and methodsA prospective observational comparative study was carried out between March 2020 and April 2021 on ICU-admitted COVID-19-infected patients and non-COVID patients above the age of 16 years who were admitted to the ICU and met the inclusion criteria.ResultsOf all, 1620 patients were enrolled;590 were in COVID group, whereas 1030 patients were in non-COVID group. The mean age was 55 +/- 22 years. The mean ICU stay was 11.55 +/- 4.22 and 8.45 +/- 3.93 days in the COVID and non-COVID groups, respectively. Ocular surface manifestations were significantly higher in patients with longer ICU stay (P=0.03). Regarding ocular surface manifestations, eye discharge was the highest incidence in the COVID group, whereas corneal ulcer was the highest in the non-COVID group. There was a significantly higher incidence of ocular surface manifestations in the non-COVID group (P=0.06). Longer ICU stays and low conscious level were significantly associated with more eye manifestations (P=0.03). ConclusionCOVID-infected patients had the highest rate of eye discharge, whereas non-COVID patients had the highest rate of corneal ulcer. Longer ICU stays and low conscious level were associated with more eye manifestations. COVID-infected patients have no distinguishing characteristics from non-COVID individuals regarding ocular surface signs.

Predictors of severity and mortality in COVID-19 patients

Background Due to limited capacity, health care systems worldwide have been put in challenging situations since the emergence of COVID-19. To prioritize patients who need hospital admission, a better understanding of the clinical predictors of disease severity is required. In the current study, we investigated the predictors of mortality and severity of illness in COVID-19 from a single center in Cairo, Egypt. Methods This retrospective cohort study included 175 patients hospitalized with COVID-19 pneumonia and had positive real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) results for SARS-CoV-2 from 1 May 2020 to 1 December 2020. Severe COVID-19 was defined as requiring high-flow oxygen (flow rate of more than 8 L/min or use of high flow oxygen cannula), noninvasive ventilation, or invasive mechanical ventilation at any time point during the hospitalization. We used univariate and multivariate regression analyses to examine the differences in patient demographics and clinical and laboratory data collected during the first 24 h of hospitalization related to severe disease or death in all 175 patients. Results Sixty-seven (38.3%) of the study subjects had a severe or critical disease. Elevated d-dimer, leukocytosis, and elevated CRP were found to be independent predictors of severe disease. In-hospital mortality occurred in 34 (19.4%) of the cases. Elevated TLC, urea, the use of invasive mechanical ventilation, and the presence of respiratory bacterial co-infection were found to be independently associated with mortality. Conclusion Clinical and laboratory data of COVID-19 patients at their hospital admission may aid clinicians in the early identification and triage of high-risk patients.